The first all-Mexican affair in the Leagues Cup round of 32 will feature a pair of heavyweight sides in Liga MX as Tigres and Pachuca face each other on Thursday at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas.
A late goal over the weekend enabled Los Tigres to defeat Inter Miami 2-1 and win the East 3 group, while the club from Hidalgo finished second in East 6 despite a 2-1 defeat versus Toronto.
Match preview
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They left it late in both encounters, but Tigres did what was needed in the end, winning their two group fixtures at this tournament for a second successive campaign.
The 2023 Liga MX Clausura winners have never been knocked out at this stage of the Leagues Cup, coming from behind to defeat the Vancouver Whitecaps on penalties in this exact fixture last year.
Tigres have lost two of their three Leagues Cup clashes played in Texas, winning only one game in the Lone Star State at this tournament on penalties versus Club America in Houston back in 2019.
Veljko Paunovic's men are undefeated in their last six matches played across all competitions, five of which were victories.
The club from Monterrey are one of five Liga MX sides without a defeat in the 2024 Apertura, currently in a three-way tie for first, along with Pumas and Cruz Azul.
They have not beaten Pachuca in a competitive fixture since claiming a narrow 2-1 triumph against them in the 2023 Campeones Cup final.
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A shootout victory over the New York Red Bulls in their opening match ultimately lifted Pachuca into the knockout stage of this tournament for a second successive season.
After receiving a bye into the Leagues Cup knockout phase a year ago, that was their first-ever victory in this competition.
Since lifting the CONCACAF Champions Cup trophy in early June, it has been a rough couple of months for Guillermo Almada's men, winning one of their last six matches in normal time across all competitions.
Thursday will be the first time they face a Mexican opponent at this tournament, with their previous victory over a Liga MX side occurring on matchday three of the current Apertura season (2-0 over Atletico San Luis).
In their only previous Leagues Cup knockout match, Pachuca played to a 0-0 draw with the Houston Dynamo, losing 5-3 on penalties.
Los Tuzos have not won an away match versus a Mexican side since defeating Santos Laguna 2-0 in April, though they won their previous road contest against Tigres 3-0 in the last Clausura campaign.
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Team News
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David Ayala was sidelined for Tigres against Inter Miami because of a knee injury, while Javier Aquino, Rafael Carioca and Juan Vigon all made their first appearances in the Leagues Cup this year.
Juan Brunetta gave them the lead after 18 minutes on Saturday, with the winner coming six minutes from the end, courtesy of Vigon.
There were six new faces in the starting 11 for Pachuca against Toronto, including Alonso Aceves, Andres Micolta, Carlos Sanchez, Alfonso Gonzalez, Jose Saldivar and Sergio de los Rios.
Oussama Idrissi put them on level terms in their previous match just before the hour mark, only for his side to concede 12 minutes from the end.
Tigres possible starting lineup:
Guzman; Aquino, Pizarro, Reyes, Angulo; Cordova, Vigon, Gorriaran, Quinones; Ibanez, Gignac
Pachuca possible starting lineup:
Moreno, Rodriguez, Cabral, Barreto, B. Gonzalez; A. Gonzalez, Pedraza; Mena, Bautista, Idrissi; Rondon
We say: Tigres 2-1 Pachuca
These two experienced sides have played in their share of knockout fixtures, but we believe Tigres' overall depth and current momentum will propel them into the last 16 once again.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 48%. A win for Pachuca had a probability of 27.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Pachuca win was 0-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Tigres in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Tigres.
