Two sides at contrasting ends of the Portuguese Primeira Liga standings square off on Sunday when Sporting Lisbon play host to Famalicao at the Estadio Jose Alvalade.
The hosts are currently second in the league table, six points off first-placed Porto, while the visitors are currently in the relegation playoff spot after picking up 17 points from 20 games.
Match preview
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Sporting Lisbon maintained their fine string of results as they claimed an emphatic 4-1 victory over Belenenses when the sides squared off at the Estadio Nacional do Jamor last Wednesday.
In an action-packed contest, Abel Camara pulled one back to O Belem after Paulinho and Pedro Porro put the hosts two goals up, but Pablo Sarabia scored on the stroke of half time to widen the margin before Paulinho capped off a brilliant individual performance with his second strike of the game in the 47th minute.
This followed a 2-1 win over rivals Benfica in the Taca da Liga final on January 29, when Goncalo Inacio and Sarabia scored to cancel out Everton's 22nd-minute goal and hand the Leoes their second piece of silverware this season.
The reigning champions have now picked up three straight victories across all competitions, while winning all but one of their last six —with a 2-1 loss at the hands of Braga on January 22 being the only exception.
With 50 points from 20 games, Sporting Lisbon are currently second in the Primeira Liga standings, six points behind title-chasing Porto, who are yet to lose a league game this season.
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Meanwhile, Famalicao failed to steer clear of the relegation places last time out when they played out an uneventful goalless draw with fellow strugglers Arouca.
In a drab contest between two sides separated by just one place in the wrong end of the table, both sides were guilty of a lacklustre display in attack as they failed to convert their scoring chances.
The Vila Nova head into Sunday's game winless in all but one of their last 10 games across all competitions — losing five and claiming four draws — with a 1-0 victory over Belenenses on January 13 being the only exception.
With 17 points from 20 games, Rui Silva's men are currently 16th on the log, five points above rock-bottom Belenenses and one below Arouca just outside the relegation zone.
While Famalicao will be looking to end this poor form and pull clear of the drop zone, next up is an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in each of the last four meetings between the sides since 2020.
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Team News
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Sporting Lisbon will head into the game with a clean bill of health and will be boosted by the acquisition of former Leicester City forward Islam Slimani, who sealed a deadline-day move to the club.
With his goal and assist against Belenenses last time out, Sarabia has been involved in eight goals in his last eight games and we expect the Spanish forward to team up with Porro for the second game running.
At the defensive end of the pitch, we should see an unchanged back three of Zouhair Feddal, Goncalo Inacio and Luis Neto shielding Antonio Adan in goal.
Meanwhile, Famalicao will have to make do without the services of Portuguese forward Heriberto Tavares, who has been sidelined since picking up an injury against Benfica on December 12.
Another name on the Vila Nova injury list is 30-year-old Diogo Figueira, who is set to sit out his ninth consecutive game after sustaining a muscle injury against Gil Vicente back in December.
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Adan; Porro, Inacio, Feddal; Esgaio, Palhinha, Santos, Nunes; Goncalves, Sarabia, Paulinho
Famalicao possible starting lineup:
Junior; Nascimento, Penetra, Ricceli, Batubinsika; Pepe, Pickel, I Rodrigues, Assuncao; Jaime; Banza
We say: Sporting Lisbon 3-0 Famalicao
Famalicao have struggled for consistency in recent weeks, picking up just one win from their last 10 games in all competitions. Sporting Lisbon, meanwhile, will be looking to put together another fine run of form having recently clinched the Taca da Liga title. We are tipping the hosts to come away with all three points and leave the visitors languishing at the wrong end of the table.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 71.07%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 10.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.74%) and 3-0 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.56%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (3.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.
