Bari

4 - 1

Modena

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 53.26%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Modena had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (7.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bari would win this match.