Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 46.54%. A draw had a probability of 30.6% and a win for Cartagena had a probability of 22.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (7.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.78%), while for a Cartagena win it was 0-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Malaga in this match.