Scottish Cup | Fourth Round
Jan 20, 2024 at 3pm UK
Somerset Park
Ayr3 - 0Kelty Hearts
Coverage of the Scottish Cup Fourth Round clash between Ayr United and Kelty Hearts.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Arbroath 0-0 Ayr
Saturday, January 13 at 3pm in Scottish Championship
Saturday, January 13 at 3pm in Scottish Championship
Last Game: Kelty Hearts 1-1 Annan
Saturday, January 13 at 3pm in Scottish League One
Saturday, January 13 at 3pm in Scottish League One
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 64.01%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Kelty Hearts had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ayr United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 1-0 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.32%), while for a Kelty Hearts win it was 1-2 (4.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ayr United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ayr United | Draw | Kelty Hearts |
| 64.01% | 19.88% | 16.11% |
| Both teams to score 54.56% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.75% | 40.25% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.38% | 62.62% |
| Ayr United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.09% | 11.91% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 62.75% | 37.25% |
| Kelty Hearts Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.94% | 38.06% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.17% | 74.83% |
| Score Analysis |
Ayr United 64%
Kelty Hearts 16.11%
Draw 19.88%
| Ayr United | Draw | Kelty Hearts |
| 2-0 @ 10.26% 2-1 @ 9.91% 1-0 @ 9.64% 3-0 @ 7.28% 3-1 @ 7.03% 4-0 @ 3.87% 4-1 @ 3.74% 3-2 @ 3.4% 4-2 @ 1.81% 5-0 @ 1.65% 5-1 @ 1.59% Other @ 3.82% Total : 64% | 1-1 @ 9.32% 2-2 @ 4.79% 0-0 @ 4.53% 3-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 0.15% Total : 19.88% | 1-2 @ 4.5% 0-1 @ 4.38% 0-2 @ 2.11% 2-3 @ 1.54% 1-3 @ 1.45% Other @ 2.13% Total : 16.11% |
