Sitting 21st in the table, the Royals are currently eight points clear of the relegation zone, having played one game more than 22nd-placed Barnsley. The Bluebirds sit 17th.

Match preview

Reading's Josh Laurent celebrates scoring their first goal on March 19, 2022 © Reuters

It has been a huge week for Reading in their fight for survival, as they followed up a 1-1 draw against Barnsley last weekend with a crucial 2-1 victory over Stoke City on Tuesday night.

Safety is getting ever closer for the Royals, who are unbeaten in their last four matches. They have not gone five games without defeat since February 2021.

Vital to their survival bid has been their home form as Paul Ince's side have won three of their last four fixtures at the Select Car Leasing Stadium.

However, no team has conceded more goals at home in the Championship this season than Reading (37). At the other end of the pitch, only Stoke and Bristol City have scored more goals in the bottom half of the table than the Royals.

Junior Hoilett scored against his former club as the Berkshire outfit won 1-0 in this season's reverse fixture in South Wales in October.

Cardiff City manager Steve Morison reacts on February 6, 2022 © Reuters

Cardiff are winless in their last 12 meetings with Reading in all competitions and they have not triumphed at the Select Car Leasing Stadium since November 2011.

The Bluebirds travel to Berkshire off the back of a humiliating 4-0 defeat to Swansea in the South Wales derby last weekend.

Steve Morison admitted that his players were "overawed" by the occasion and that they had "let everyone down" as they were beaten for the third time in four derbies.

It was Cardiff's first defeat in five Championship matches, but it was a sign that they already have one eye on next season with survival secured long ago.

Reading Championship form:

Cardiff City Championship form:

Team News

Reading manager Paul Ince on March 12, 2022 © Reuters

Tom Ince should come straight back into Reading's starting lineup after being ineligible to face parent club Stoke on Tuesday evening.

Baba Rahman will be pushing to start at left-back after making the bench in the last two games following his hamstring injury.

While Andy Rinomhota and Yakou Meite are out for the rest of the season, Alen Halilovic could make his return to action in the next couple of weeks after a thigh issue.

Morison could look to shake up his Cardiff team after their derby drubbing, with Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies among those pushing to start.

Curtis Nelson returned to the matchday squad last weekend after over two months on the sidelines with a calf injury, so could also be brought in.

Long-term absentees Max Watters, Sean Morrison and Isaac Vassell all remain unavailable for the Bluebirds.

Reading possible starting lineup:
Nyland; Yiadom, Morrison, Holmes, Rahman; Laurent, Drinkwater; Ince, Swift, Hoilett; Joao

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Drameh, McGuinness, Nelson, Ng, Doughty; Ralls, Wintle, Colwill; Davies, Hugill

SM words green background

We say: Reading 2-0 Cardiff City

Reading are gradually building momentum and edging ever closer to safety, so we think that they will get another important three points on the board at home. Cardiff have very little to play for and will be shaken by their derby defeat.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 38.84%. A win for Reading had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Reading win was 1-0 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.