Randers take on Hobro at Cepheus Park Randers on Monday with their hopes of a top-six finish in the Danish Superliga still in the balance.
Thomas Thomasberg's side are seventh and two points adrift of Aalborg BK with two games of the regular season to play, while Hobro are down in 12th and consigned to their fate.
Match preview
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Denmark's top flight returned last Thursday following a two-month absence owing to the coronavirus pandemic, with Randers travelling to Aarhus.
The Horses were heading for a valuable victory thanks to Simon Piesinger's first-half goal, only for Patrick Mortensen to pop up in the 92nd minute of the match.
It was a cruel way for Randers to mark their return to action and leaves them with plenty of work to do if they are to book a place in the championship round.
For that to happen they need to finish sixth or higher, meaning that they need a helping hand from elsewhere.
Aalborg are two points better off in sixth and fifth-place Brondby are a further two points clear, so it looks like being a straight shootout between two sides for that final top-half spot.
After hosting Hobro on Monday, Randers then make the trip to giants of the division Copenhagen, who are second to runaway leaders FC Midtjylland.
Following the late draw with Aarhus in a game watched by virtual supporters in the stands, Thomasberg's men now have only one win in their last four league games.
Hobro's return is far worse, though, having last picked up all three points 16 matches ago on September 15. Incredibly, that 2-1 win came against Copenhagen.
Indeed, that is one of only two victories Peter Sorensen's side have managed all season, with their only other win coming against Silkeborg back in August.
No team has picked up fewer wins than Hobro, yet they are 14th in the 16-team division, kept off the bottom by Silkeborg and Esbjerg.
Points and goal difference will carry over from the regular season into the relegation round, so the visitors will know the importance of ending their rotten run on Monday.
Randers' Superliga form: LWDWLD
Hobro's Superliga form: DDLLDD
Head To Head
Hobro have drawn 13 of their 24 games this season, including a four-goal stalemate against Randers in the reverse fixture some 10 months ago.
The Horses are unbeaten in six games against their next opponents, winning four of those in a run stretching back to a 2-0 league loss in August 2017.
We say: Randers 2-0 Hobro
Hobro have the ability to grind out draws and that is keeping them off the foot of the table. However, Randers tend to do well in this fixture and will be confident of picking up the three points they need to keep their top-six ambitions alive.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Randers win with a probability of 47.37%. A win for Hobro had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Randers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Hobro win was 0-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
