Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 45.6%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 28.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.