Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 48.41%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 26.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.38%) and 0-2 (8.66%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.