Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 81.96%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 5.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.87%) and 1-0 (11.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.96%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (2.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.