Primeira Liga | Gameweek 17

Jan 9, 2022 at 8.30pm UK

Estádio do Restelo

Belenenses
2 - 1
Arouca

Varela (73'), Camara (90+3')
Phete (11'), Sithole (45+2'), Sousa (53'), Calila (57'), Nuno (65'), Safira (70'), Tavares (86')
Phete (18')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Dabbagh (37')
Nunes (43'), Dabbagh (59')
Silva (6'), Dabbagh (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Belenenses and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Belenenses 1-1 Arouca

Arouca suffered a 6-0 mauling at the hands of Braga last time out and will be seeking to restore some pride in this one. We expect both sides to take the game to each other and this makes for an exciting affair, but we anticipate the spoils will be shared as they are evenly matched on paper. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 58.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 18.25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.17%) and 1-2 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.

Result
Belenenses	Draw	Arouca
18.25%	23.22%	58.53%

Both teams to score 48.13%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.99%

51.01%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.12%

72.88%

Belenenses Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.09%

41.91%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.64%

78.36%

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.86%

17.14%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.62%

47.38%

Score Analysis

Belenenses 18.25%

Arouca 58.53%

Draw 23.21%

Belenenses	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 6.25% 2-1 @ 4.79% 2-0 @ 2.72% 3-1 @ 1.39% 3-2 @ 1.23% Other @ 1.88% Total : 18.25%	1-1 @ 11.01% 0-0 @ 7.18% 2-2 @ 4.23% Other @ 0.79% Total : 23.21%	0-1 @ 12.67% 0-2 @ 11.17% 1-2 @ 9.72% 0-3 @ 6.57% 1-3 @ 5.71% 0-4 @ 2.9% 1-4 @ 2.52% 2-3 @ 2.48% 2-4 @ 1.1% 0-5 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.67% Total : 58.53%