Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 38

Jul 26, 2020 at 4pm UK

London Stadium

West Ham
1 - 1
Aston Villa

Yarmolenko (85')
Antonio (23'), Fredericks (51')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Grealish (84')
Samatta (41')

Dean Smith: 'Premier League survival better than promotion'

Aston Villa retained their Premier League status by a single point, having won promotion via the Championship play-offs last season.

Jul 26, 19:42

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Ham United win with a probability of 44.11%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a West Ham United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.

Result
West Ham United	Draw	Aston Villa
44.11%	25.69%	30.2%

Both teams to score 53.54%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.71%

50.29%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.76%

72.24%

West Ham United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.27%

22.73%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.6%

56.4%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.29%

30.71%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.03%

66.97%

Score Analysis

West Ham United 44.11%

Aston Villa 30.2%

Draw 25.68%

West Ham United	Draw	Aston Villa
1-0 @ 10.34% 2-1 @ 9.04% 2-0 @ 7.66% 3-1 @ 4.47% 3-0 @ 3.78% 3-2 @ 2.64% 4-1 @ 1.66% 4-0 @ 1.4% 4-2 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.15% Total : 44.11%	1-1 @ 12.2% 0-0 @ 6.98% 2-2 @ 5.34% 3-3 @ 1.04% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.68%	0-1 @ 8.24% 1-2 @ 7.21% 0-2 @ 4.86% 1-3 @ 2.84% 2-3 @ 2.1% 0-3 @ 1.91% Other @ 3.04% Total : 30.2%