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Sports Mole previews Friday's Nations League clash between Portugal and Poland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Portugal welcome Poland to Porto on matchday five of the UEFA Nations League on Friday night.

The hosts need just one point to be assured of a top-two finish, while Poland need four points from their final two matches to have any chance of reaching the finals.

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Match preview

© Imago

Despite seeing their 100% record in this edition of the Nations League come to an end last month, Portugal are still in the driving seat to finish top of Group A1.

Roberto Martinez's side were wasteful in a 0-0 draw with Scotland at Hampden Park on matchday four, but were bailed out by Croatia throwing two points away in Poland from a commanding position, meaning Portugal remain three points ahead in the section.

However, failing to beat Scotland does mean that, even with a win, top spot may not be secured heading into the clash with the Vatreni on matchday six, if Zlatko Dalic's men are able to beat the Scots.

Having not reached the finals of this competition since they won the inaugural version back in 2018-19, Portugal are almost certainly set to feature in them again next spring, helped further by the fact they have been expanded from four to eight teams.

As League A ever-presents, Portugal have been largely impressive in the Nations League, facing opposition on a similar footing to them, winning seven of their 10 home matches across all four editions, and never conceding more than one goal in those games.

A 3-1 win in Warsaw last month means they should come into the return fixture with the belief that they will seal their place in the finals with another win.

Poland are now winless in their last six meetings with Portugal following that convincing performance from Martinez's side on matchday three, but the visitors' race is not yet run.

The big criticism under both Czeslaw Michniewicz and Fernando Santos was that Poland were too cautious and did not get the best out of their undoubted attacking talent.

However, the opposite now seems to be the case, as Poland have scored the same amount of goals as Portugal and Croatia in this group, but find themselves facing an uphill struggle to break into the top two.

© Imago

Michal Probierz's side have now failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their previous nine games, but they are at least showing a competitive edge again and moving in the right direction.

Poland were utterly woeful in Euro 2024 qualifying, missing out automatically behind Albania and Czechia, and only taking one point from two games with Moldova, but they edged through on penalties against Wales after Probierz took over.

The Eagles made very little impact in the final though, suffering elimination after just two group games, but they did at least draw with France before departing the tournament.

This UNL campaign has provided plenty of promising moments, including the late away win in Scotland, and fighting back from 3-1 down to draw with Croatia in their last outing.

Salvaging a point there keeps them in contention to finish in the top two, but a loss here will see them eliminated regardless of Croatia's result, given Poland's inferior head-to-head record.

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Team News

© Imago

Portugal have a crisis at centre-back heading into this international window, with Ruben Dias and Goncalo Inacio both absent with injury.

Antonio Silva is the most experienced option in that position, and even though he has not been playing regularly at Benfica, he should start seeing as it would be unlikely for Martinez to go with both uncapped Tiago Djalo and Tomas Araujo together.

In attack, the hosts are without Diogo Jota and Goncalo Ramos, while midfield trio Ruben Neves, Matheus Nunes and Pedro Goncalves are all also unavailable.

Poland have been hugely weakened by the absence of star striker Robert Lewandowski, who has pulled out of the squad late with a lower back issue.

Arkadiusz Milik remains off the radar, so Karol Swiderski and Krzysztof Piatek could battle for a starting spot up top for the away side, unless Probierz opts to go for a two-pronged attack.

Jakub Piotrowski and Kacper Kozlowski are absent in the midfield for Poland, while Verona's Pawel Dawidowicz is still out after being forced off in the first half against Croatia last month.

Portugal possible starting lineup:
Diogo Costa; Dalot, Antonio Silva, Araujo, Nuno Mendes; Bruno Fernandes, Joao Neves, Bernardo; Neto, Ronaldo, Leao

Poland possible starting lineup:
Bulka; Frankowski, Piatkowski, Bednarek, Kiwior, Zalewski; S Szymanski, Moder, Zielinski; Swiderski, Piatek

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We say: Portugal 2-0 Poland

Portugal have only lost at home to Poland once, and that was back in 1976, so Martinez's men will fancy their chances of another three points, especially after winning the reverse fixture 3-1 last month.

Poland will have to be aggressive knowing that they must get something here, and that even a point may not be enough if Croatia match their result, but the might of the Portugal team will make that devilishly difficult for Probierz's side.


For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

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