The Philadelphia Union and New York City FC will delve into unchartered territory as they face each other in the Eastern Conference Finals of MLS on Sunday from Subaru Park.
Both teams won in heart-stopping fashion to get to this stage for the first time in their history, with the Union knocking out Nashville SC in a penalty shootout and the Pigeons doing the same to the Supporters' Shield winners, the New England Revolution.
Match preview
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The expectations in Philly were far less heading into this postseason campaign than in 2020, and it seems like that has been a good thing for Jim Curtin and his side, who find themselves a win away from their first appearance in the MLS Cup Final.
Philly have gone through a gruelling pair of playoff matches to get to this point, beating the New York Red Bulls with a wonder strike from Jakob Glesnes in extra time and then keeping their composure against the Boys in Gold to win that penalty shootout.
With the emotional highs that the 2020 Supporters' Shield winners have experienced in the playoffs this time around, the last thing that they need is a distraction, but they have one on their hands right now, with rumours that their current manager, who won the Sigi Schmid Coach of the Year Award last season, could be heading to FC Cincinnati, according to an article published in The Athletic, who have linked Curtin to the former technical director of the Union Chris Albright, who is now the general manager for the Orange-and-Blue.
That however is not the thing that has grabbed the headlines but instead it has been the fact that as of Saturday 11 Union players have been deemed ineligible because of COVID concerns.
There is always plenty of physical play and hard tackles when the Union and New York lock horns, and knowing what is at stake in this one could add to that intensity, not to mention their history in matches this season where both teams committed a total of 76 fouls combined in three games against one another, plus in two of those meetings, one side received a red card.
When 2021 began, there were not a lot of pundits who felt as though the Boys in Blue, who had the best record in the regular season last year would make an impact this time around, mainly because they had lost arguably their best players in the off-season in Brenden Aaronson and Mark McKenzie.
They have used those losses as a rallying cry and made up for that missing quality with hard work and determination and a solid defensive shape which has served them well all season, conceding the second-fewest goals in MLS this year (35) and allowing only four shots on target in the playoffs so far.
Playing in front of their home fans has genuinely been like having an extra player on the field as the Union have won seven straight matches at Subaru Park if you include their shootout victory versus Nashville, and they have only conceded twice over that stretch.
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The other Boys in Blue, aka New York, have had to battle hard to get to this point, particularly in the previous round, as the Revolution did not make it easy on them, coming back to level that match in normal time and then again late in extra time before eventually falling on PKs.
Winning emotional games like that can sometimes come at a price, and it was a costly victory for Ronny Deila's team, who will not have their leading goalscorer available, while one of their most versatile players is questionable.
Their motto throughout the postseason has been about embracing the moment, and they have done that so far with a big second-half performance to oust Atlanta United in the opening round and eventually knocking down the top team in the league in the regular season, in what had to feel like a heavyweight clash with blows exchanged back and forth between both teams over 120 minutes of play and then a shootout.
They come into this contest unbeaten in their previous three road matches, and are unlikely to be intimidated or overwhelmed by coming to the City of Brotherly Love, winning two of their previous three matches played there.
While taking on the Revs presented a ton of challenges to New York, the Union will give them something completely different to think about, and it will be a tall order for them to try to find a way to solve what has been an incredibly stingy Union backline.
The playoffs are the time when heroes step up and make memories, and the Pigeons will be hoping that someone new will be able to do exactly that.
Setting the tone early as they did in Greater Boston will be critical to their chances in this one, and that is something that New York have been able to do in their previous two road games, scoring in the opening nine minutes on Tuesday and drawing first blood in their last regular-season match away from home against Inter Miami.
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Team News
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Andre Blake only faced two shots on target in 120 minutes of action against Nashville, but he came up big in the penalty shootout as he did not concede a single goal, enabling 18-year-old Jack McGlynn to fire home the winning kick to put the Union in this position.
Olivier Mbaizo missed their Conference Semi-Final win due to health and safety protocols but is back training with the team, while the experience of captain Alejandro Bedoya has been invaluable to them in these big games as the midfielder made his seventh postseason start for the club last Sunday.
Daniel Gazdag scored the equaliser for his side against Nashville, his first postseason goal for Philly, while Jack Elliott was the only other player besides McGlynn to find the back of the net from 12 yards away.
The players who are out because of health and safety protocols include Andre Blake, Alejandro Bedoya, Jack Elliott, Jakob Glesnes, Kai Wagner, Alvas Powell, Corey Burke, Sergio Santos, Ilsinho, Quinn Sullivan and Joe Bednik.
Naturally, the question surrounding the Pigeons heading into this match is who will replace the MLS Golden Boot winner Valentin Castellanos after the Argentine striker, who has 21 goals this year (19 in the regular season and two in the playoffs), picked up a suspension following his expulsion in extra time against the Revs.
On the injury front James Sands, who can be effective as a fullback and midfielder, limped off the field with a knock on Tuesday, and was replaced by Tony Rocha, so they will be monitoring his health very closely, while Anton Tinnerholm is out with an Achilles injury and Keaton Parks will not return this season following blood clot surgery.
Santiago Rodriguez got the ball rolling for the Pigeons against the Revs, scoring his fourth of the year, three minutes into the match, while Sean Johnson stopped Adam Buksa in the penalty shootout as Alexander Callens notched the winner from the spot.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Freese; Collin, Findlay, Flach; Gazdag, Harriel, Martinez, Mbazio; McGlynn, Montero, Przybylko
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Amundsen, Callens, Chanot, Gray; Morales, Sands; Rodriguez, Moralez, Medina; Heber
We say: Philadelphia Union 1-2 New York City FC
Before the news out of Philly about the amount of players missing we would have pegged the Union to win but as a result of that the scales have tipped back in the favour of New York, even though they are missing the heart and soul of their team in Castellanos.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 42.01%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 31.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for New York City FC in this match.
