Boasting a 3-1 lead from the first leg in Peru, Penarol welcome Sporting Cristal to the Estadio Campeon del Siglo in Montevideo on Wednesday night, seeking a straightforward route into the Copa Sudamericana semi-finals.
The hosts have lost just one of their last 14 matches on home soil across all competitions, while the visitors are unbeaten in their last six games on the road.
Match preview
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With a two-goal cushion from the first leg, Penarol are on course to reach the last four in the Copa Sudamericana for the first time in their history.
Mauricio Larriera's men raced into an early lead, with Agustin Alvarez's eighth-minute opener shortly followed by a 19th-minute strike by Facundo Torres.
Omar Merlo pulled one back for Cristal in the 90th minute but there was still time for Penarol to restore their two-goal lead, when Walter Gargano found the net in the fifth minute of stoppage time.
Since their first-leg victory, Penarol claimed a narrow 1-0 win at home to Progreso in the Uruguayan top flight last weekend, which has moved the 50-time champions up to third in the table, five points behind league leaders Plaza Colonia.
Penarol's last continental triumph was back in 1987 when they won the Copa Libertadores final against CD America. Since then they have only reached the final of a major tournament once, back in 2011.
Larriera's men are now edging closer to creating their own history as they are just 90 minutes away from their first semi-final in a decade.
As for Sporting Cristal, they have a lot of work to do if they are to reach the last four of a major tournament for just the second time in their history.
This is just the third year that Los Cerveceros have competed in the Copa Sudamericana, with the quarter-finals this season being the furthest they have progressed so far.
Despite dominating the first leg with 65% possession and eight shots on target – more than double their opponents – the Peruvian outfit are two goals behind. A more clinical display in front of goal is required if they are to reduce the two-goal deficit on Wednesday.
Cristal head into the second leg after suffering another defeat, this time losing 1-0 to Cesar Vallejo in the Peruvian top flight. Roberto Mosquera's men have now slipped down to seventh in the table, six points behind league leaders Alianza Lima.
Mosquera cannot afford to see his side perform the same way in the second leg against Penarol if they are to have any chance of progressing to the next round.
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Team News
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Penarol winger Nicolas Schiappacasse (knee) and goalkeeper Martin Correa (muscle) are still ruled out with injuries, and Torres is the latest name to join them on the treatment table after picking up an ankle problem over the weekend.
Following the departure of centre-back Fabricio Formiliano to Necaxa, Carlos Rodriguez is now expected to partner Gary Kagelmacher in the heart of the defence.
Striker Alvarez, who is currently the top scorer in the Copa Sudamericana with nine goals from 11 appearances, is set to start up front and could be supported in attack by wingers Agustin Canobbio and Valentin Rodriguez.
As for Sporting Cristal, they have five first-team players ruled out with injuries. Christopher Olivares and Emile Franco are both unavailable with knee problems, while Jesus Pretell (hamstring), Marcos Riquelme (muscle) and Nilson Loyola (muscle) will also miss Wednesday's first leg.
Gerald Tavara is set to keep his place in a defensive midfield role, which will give Christofer Gonzales and Horacio Calcaterra licence to roam in the final third.
Alejandro Hohberg, who has scored 10 goals in 22 appearances so far this season, is expected to start on the left wing, with Irven Avila to operate on the opposite flank.
Penarol possible starting lineup:
Dawson; Gonzalez, C. Rodriguez, Kagelmacher, Piquerez; Trindade; Canobbio, Gargano, Ceppelini, V. Rodriguez; Alvarez
Sporting Cristal possible starting lineup:
Duarte; Lora, Merlo, Chavez, Prado; Tavara; Avila, Calcaterra, Gonzales, Hohberg; Liza
We say: Penarol 2-0 Sporting Cristal (5-1 on aggregate)
Sporting Cristal will need to come out of the blocks quickly and find the clinical edge that has been missing from their previous two matches if they are to overturn a two-goal deficit on Wednesday.
However, with Penarol in good form, we believe that the hosts will do enough to secure a routine win to progress into the semi-finals.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 57.07%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Sporting Cristal had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Sporting Cristal win it was 0-1 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.
