They met on Decision Day of 2021, and Orlando City and CF Montreal will face each other on the opening day of the Major League Soccer regular season on Sunday at Exploria Stadium.

Both teams had an up-and-down campaign last year, with The Lions finishing sixth in the Eastern Conference thanks to a 2-0 victory over Montreal, who missed the playoffs by two points.

Match preview

Orlando City forward Tesho Akindele celebrates after scoring a goal on May 23, 2021 © Reuters

It is a new dawn in Orlando, for a club that used their Latin American connections to recruit new talent heading into this year in the hopes of replacing the veteran players lost.

Oscar Pareja built this team on defence, and while their backline held their own in the opening six regular-season encounters of 2021, conceding only two goals, they became more and more fragile as the season wore on, allowing 48 tallies by the end of the year.

Their back end may be the best-kept secret in the league as they are incredibly underrated, while their holding midfielders are versatile, hard-working and capable of coming back to cover space.

The Lions lost some inspirational leaders and well-established veteran attackers, who contributed plenty during their time in the Magical Kingdom.

While this squad nearly imploded and missed the playoffs a year ago, they did still set their share of new records, breaking the franchise mark for points (51), wins (13), clean sheets (nine) and home victories (eight).

Consistency and creativity in the midfield could help the new faces in attack this year, as their frontmen have a lot of potential though are still unproven in this league.

CF Montreal head coach Wilfred Nancy watches the play during the second half at Stade Saputo on October 16, 2021 © Reuters

Despite missing the playoffs controversially on the final day of the 2021 regular season, Montreal still managed to take some steps forward in their quest to be a contending team in MLS.

Not only did the players buy into the system put forward by manager Wilfried Nancy, but there was plenty of chemistry within this group, who maintained a solid defensive shape.

What seemed to hold them back a year ago was a lack of top-end quality talent, and it remains to be seen if the current edition of this team have enough to finish in the top seven of the Eastern Conference.

This Canadian outfit have committed to building a squad around established MLS players, and although we are unlikely to see them play an appealing brand of soccer, there is no doubt that this is a cohesive unit that fight hard for one another.

Under Nancy, this group are in no hurry to bring the ball up the field quickly or catch teams on the counter, preferring instead to bide their time, knocking the ball around the field before an opening can present itself.

How they finish in the regular season could depend on the kind of versatility and creativity that they are able to display in the middle of the pitch, as they are capable of winning loose balls, but it remains unclear if their midfielders have more than one dimension at their disposal.

Orlando City Major League Soccer Preseason form:

CF Montreal Major League Soccer Preseason form:

CF Montreal form (all competitions):

Team News

Orlando City SC head coach Oscar Pareja walks off the field at the end of the game against FC Cincinnati at TQL Stadium on August 7, 2021 © Reuters

The Lions were gutted in attack over the offseason as Nani signed with Serie A side Venezia. Daryl Dike, who led them in 2021 with 11 goals, is in England at West Bromwich Albion and Chris Mueller transferred to Hibernian FC in Scotland.

Facundo Torres is considered one of the most exciting South American talents, while a lot of stock is being put in Ercan Kara, who has plenty of experience in European competition, and Cesar Araujo has a lot of upside after being named the MVP last season for his Uruguayan club Montevideo Wanderers.

Mauricio Pereyra was their top creative midfielder last year, leading the team with eight assists, while Antonio Carlos and Robin Jansson have been sharp on the back end.

Kiki Struna left Montreal after just one season as he was traded to the Houston Dynamo, while Kei Kamara has a ton of MLS experience, scoring the fifth-most goals all-time in league history (130) and Alistair Johnston came to this team following a solid 2021 campaign in which he averaged 15.33 pressures per 90 minutes, as Nashville SC conceded the fewest goals in the league (33).

Djordje Mihailovic had a breakout campaign a year ago with 14 assists, second only to league MVP Carles Gil, while Romell Quioto and Mason Toye combined for 15 goals (eight for Quioto, seven for Toye) in a shortened season for the two of them due to injury.

Canadian international Samuel Piette will be a crucial figure in the midfield as he has done a great job of breaking up opposing teams' transitional play, while big things will be expected from Rudy Camacho after being named the Defensive Player of the Year for this team in 2021.

Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Moutinho, Carlos, Jansson, Ruan; Mendez, Urso; Torres, Pereyra, Michel; Kara

CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Miller, Camacho, Johnston; Lappalainen, Piette, Wanyama, Brault-Guillard; Mihailovic; Toye, Quioto

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We say: Orlando City 0-1 CF Montreal

These are two passive teams who like to take their time and build up play from the back, and though the creative depth of each side will be a question mark, Montreal have some proven individual quality which should be enough to help them collect all three points this weekend.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 26.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 0-1 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orlando City would win this match.