Norwich City head into Tuesday's Championship encounter at Birmingham City looking to maintain their clear advantage at the top of the standings.

While the Canaries are well placed to earn promotion to the Premier League, Blues needed a 1-0 win at Sheffield Wednesday at the weekend to move out of the relegation zone.

Match preview

Norwich City manager Daniel Farke pictured in February 2021 © Reuters

On the back of defeat at promotion rivals Swansea City, Daniel Farke and his players came under fire after a number of concerning performances.

However, the Canaries have responded with three successive victories, their latest success over Rotherham United extending their lead to seven points over the chasing pack.

Norwich were further boosted by the defeats suffered by Brentford and Swansea City, and there is a window of opportunity for the club to cement their status at the top with 15 matches remaining.

The East Anglian outfit were again indebted to Teemu Pukki at the weekend as the Finn took his return to four goals from three appearances with the decisive strike against the Millers.

Norwich City's Teemu Pukki celebrates scoring their first goal on February 20, 2021 © Reuters

With just three goals being conceded in six fixtures at the other end, Farke will be optimistic about his team's chances of extending their lead over the coming weeks.

As far as Birmingham are concerned, head coach Aitor Karanka is said to be fighting for his job at St Andrew's as Blues flirt with relegation to League One.

Although a 1-0 victory was recorded at rivals Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, the Spaniard is aware that one positive result every few games will not be enough to keep him in the dugout.

Despite their current situation at the bottom of the table, Birmingham now possess the eighth best away record in the division, collecting 22 points from 16 games.

Nevertheless, nine points from 15 games at their West Midlands home is the difference maker, heaping the pressure on Karanka and his squad to end a winless run which stretches back to October 28.

Birmingham City Championship form: DDLLLW

Norwich City Championship form: DDLWWW

Team News

Birmingham City manager Aitor Karanka pictured on January 10, 2021 © Reuters

Despite witnessing his side only prevail 1-0 against a 10-man Owls side, Karanka may select the same Blues XI for this contest.

That would see the likes of Yan Valery and Alen Halilovic needing to remain patient in their wait for a starting role.

Barring any late fitness issues, Farke also has little reason to make any alterations to his Norwich side.

However, having opted against any substitutions until after the 90th minute on Saturday, Farke could bring Lukas Rupp and Kieran Dowell back into midfield.

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Dean, Clarke-Salter, Pedersen; Gardner, Sunjic; Sanchez, Harper, Bela; Hogan

Norwich City possible starting lineup:
Krul; Aarons, Hanley, Gibson, Giannoulis; Rupp, Skipp; Buendia, Vrancic, Cantwell; Pukki

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We say: Birmingham City 0-2 Norwich City

Having got an important three points on the board at the weekend, Karanka will feel that some pressure has been lifted ahead of this game. However, despite the opportunity to play with more freedom, we still expect the visitors to record a comfortable win at St Andrew's.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 54.7%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 18.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.05%) and 1-2 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 1-0 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Norwich City would win this match.