We said: Norway 1-2 Serbia
While Norway are reliant on one man to fire them to success, Serbia's all-round attacking riches mean that they can even win when their backs are against the wall. At the end of an entertaining shootout, it could be the visitors that ascend to the Nations League's top flight.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norway win with a probability of 47.16%. A win for Serbia had a probability of 27.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norway win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Serbia win was 0-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.