Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 38.52%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.