Two sides seeking to consolidate mid-table spots for the remainder of the Ligue 1 season do battle on Sunday as Montpellier HSC welcome Brest to the Stade de la Mosson.
La Paillade ran out 2-0 winners over Bordeaux just before the international break, while Michel der Zakarian's side went down 1-0 to Angers.
Match preview
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After swapping dugouts in the summer, former Brest coach Olivier Dall'Oglio reunites with his former side with a depleted defence in tow, as Montpellier managed to get the better of Bordeaux despite going down to nine men two weekends ago.
By the 16-minute mark, Montpellier had already gone two goals to the good through Elye Wahi's finish and Florent Mollet's long-range thunderbolt, and even though they played the entire second half two men down with Mihailo Ristic and Nicolas Cozza both sent off, Dall'Oglio's side managed to hold on.
Failing to breach a Montpellier defence with a two-man advantage was a new low for basement side Bordeaux, who saw Alberth Elis's spot kick saved by Jonas Omlin, as Montpellier quickly snapped a three-game winless run in the top flight to cement their position in 11th place - just one point adrift of both Lyon and Nantes.
A top-half finish is certainly not out of the question for Montpellier just yet, and it is not mathematically impossible for La Paillade to make a late charge for the top five, but securing a spot in the top 10 is the only realistic goal for Dall'Oglio's men now.
Having claimed a stunning away win at Bordeaux, improving a measly record of one point from their last three games on home soil is the next aim for Montpellier, who have failed to score in three of their last five league matches at the Stade de la Mosson.
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Returning to the club where he spent four years in charge of between 2017 and 2021, ex-Montpellier head coach Der Zakarian was left to bemoan a game-winning spot kick as Angers won 1-0 to inflict a third defeat in four on Les Pirates.
After Pierrick Capelle went down under the challenge of Lucien Agoume, Sofiane Boufal stepped up to send Marco Bizot the wrong way from 12 yards, and Brest had to rely on their goalkeeper to keep the scoreline at 1-0 later on in the contest.
Les Pirates have not quite staved off the threat of a relegation dogfight just yet but should not be in any real danger of being dragged into a scrap for top-flight status - currently sitting pretty in 13th spot and 12 points clear of 19th-placed Metz.
Only winning one of their last five games in Ligue 1 may lead to a slight sense of apprehension within the Brest fanbase, though, and they have only found the back of the net twice in their last five away matches, so Der Zakarian's side would do well to breach a heavily-weakened Montpellier backline.
However, not since the days of the 2007-08 Ligue 2 season have Brest beaten Montpellier in any competition, with La Paillade stretching their unbeaten run in this fixture to 12 games with a 4-0 triumph as the Stade Francis Le-Ble earlier this term.
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Team News
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While Cozza will only serve a one-game ban following his red card in the win over Bordeaux, Ristic will serve a full five suspended matches for his foul and subsequent reaction to the linesman at the Matmut Atlantique.
Losing another two defenders is hardly ideal with Thibault Tamas, Mamadou Sakho and Pedro Mendes all out injured, as Thuler and Ambroise Oyongo prepare to deputise for the suspended duo at the back.
Wahi and Valere Germain were both sacrificed early in the Bordeaux win due to their teammates' sending offs, and the latter's spot is now at risk with Stephy Mavididi making his long-awaited return to action.
In contrast, Brest have no such concerns on the defensive front barring injured goalkeeper Sebastien Cibois and right-back Ronael Pierre-Gabriel, with Der Zakarian otherwise working with a full complement of players.
In a bid to change his side's attacking fortunes, Der Zakarian may opt to bring Inter Milan loanee Martin Satriano or Jeremy Le Douaron back into the final third.
Romain Del Castillo is also at risk of losing his spot after being hooked at half time in the loss to Angers, although Algeria international Youcef Belaili, who is an option for change out wide, has reportedly not been in contact with the club since the international break and is yet to return to the squad.
Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Omlin; Souquet, Thuler, Esteve, Oyongo; Ferri, Chotard; Mollet, Savanier, Mavididi; Wahi
Brest possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Duverne, Herelle, Chardonnet, Uronen; Honorat, Agoume, Belkebla, Del Castillo; Satriano, Cardona
We say: Montpellier HSC 3-1 Brest
Montpellier's record in this fixture certainly speaks for itself, but with so many defenders unavailable through either injury or suspension, their chances of another clean sheet are slim.
However, the return of Mavididi to an eye-catching front four will give the Paillade attack an added dimension, and we are backing Dall'Oglio to come out on top against his former club as Der Zakarian endures a miserable return to the Mosson.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 41.98%. A win for Brest had a probability of 31.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Brest win was 0-1 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
