Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
Result | ||
DC United | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
41.14% ( -0.2) | 26.07% ( 0.02) | 32.79% ( 0.18) |
Both teams to score 53.36% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.99% ( -0.03) | 51.01% ( 0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.12% ( -0.02) | 72.88% ( 0.02) |
DC United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.5% ( -0.11) | 24.5% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.04% ( -0.16) | 58.96% ( 0.16) |
Philadelphia Union Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.68% ( 0.1) | 29.32% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.7% ( 0.13) | 65.3% ( -0.13) |
Score Analysis |
DC United | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
1-0 @ 10.1% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 4.09% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.44% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.68% Total : 41.13% | 1-1 @ 12.39% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.19% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.03% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.07% | 0-1 @ 8.82% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.6% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.11% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.5% Total : 32.79% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 29 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 63 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 29 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 50 | 37 | 13 | 55 |
3 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 53 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 29 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 43 |
5 | Orlando City | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 43 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 40 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 38 |
8 | Toronto | 30 | 11 | 3 | 16 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 36 |
9 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 33 |
10 | DC United | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 33 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 32 |
12 | Nashville SCNashville | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 32 |
13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 31 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 29 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 28 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 28 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 59 | 44 | 15 | 55 |
2 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 57 | 42 | 15 | 50 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 49 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 47 |
5 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 56 | 50 | 6 | 47 |
6 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 46 |
7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 45 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 60 | 50 | 10 | 43 |
9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 39 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 35 |
11 | Dallas | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 46 | 48 | -2 | 34 |
12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 31 |
13 | St Louis City | 29 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 28 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 29 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 18 |