Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 73.77%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 9.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.21%) and 3-0 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (3.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.
Result | ||
Columbus Crew | Draw | Toronto |
73.77% ( 0.23) | 16.31% ( -0.01) | 9.91% ( -0.22) |
Both teams to score 48.28% ( -0.87) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.08% ( -0.67) | 38.92% ( 0.67) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.76% ( -0.71) | 61.23% ( 0.71) |
Columbus Crew Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.91% ( -0.11) | 9.08% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.12% ( -0.27) | 30.87% ( 0.27) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.11% ( -0.89) | 46.89% ( 0.89) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.59% ( -0.69) | 82.4% ( 0.69) |
Score Analysis |
Columbus Crew | Draw | Toronto |
2-0 @ 12.25% ( 0.26) 1-0 @ 10.21% ( 0.26) 3-0 @ 9.8% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 4.45% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.1) 5-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.07) 6-0 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 3.91% Total : 73.76% | 1-1 @ 7.74% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.26% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.8% Total : 16.31% | 0-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.54% Total : 9.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 44 | 24 | 64 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 58 | 31 | 27 | 56 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 56 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 44 |
5 | Orlando City | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 43 |
6 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 33 | 3 | 41 |
7 | New York City FCNY City | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 41 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 36 |
9 | Toronto | 31 | 11 | 3 | 17 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 36 |
10 | CF MontrealMontreal | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 34 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 33 |
12 | Nashville SCNashville | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 33 |
13 | DC United | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 33 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 29 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 29 | 8 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 60 | -28 | 28 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 46 | 17 | 58 |
2 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 60 | 45 | 15 | 51 |
3 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 58 | 50 | 8 | 50 |
4 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 49 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 48 |
6 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 47 |
7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 46 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 53 | 10 | 44 |
9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 50 | 48 | 2 | 42 |
10 | Dallas | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 49 | 0 | 37 |
11 | Austin FCAustin | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 35 |
12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 31 |
13 | St Louis City | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 43 | 57 | -14 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 30 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 18 |