Manchester City could be playing their final match as champions of England when they welcome Burnley to the Etihad Stadium on Monday night.
Pep Guardiola's side prolonged Liverpool's wait for the title courtesy of a 3-0 triumph over Arsenal in their first game back, but even another victory over Burnley will not be enough if the champions-elect keep winning.
Match preview
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Watching Manchester City's match against Arsenal on Wednesday, you could have been forgiven for thinking that nothing had changed over the last six months.
Guardiola's men outclassed the error-strewn, injury-hit and eventually 10-man Gunners, with Kevin De Bruyne leading the way in a 3-0 victory - just as was the case in the reverse fixture in December.
Such a confident return after more than three months out would have pleased the demanding Guardiola, and finally allowed Man City to respond to their derby defeat which came immediately prior to lockdown.
As far as the table was concerned it had minimal impact - cutting Liverpool's lead at the top from 25 points back down to 22 - but more importantly it extended their reign as champions for at least a few more days.
Liverpool can no longer win the title against Everton on Sunday, but if they win that match then they will have the chance to wrap things up against Crystal Palace on Wednesday, regardless of if Man City win this one. Victory for Liverpool and defeat to Burnley would see Man City surrender the title on Monday night.
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City find themselves in limbo to a certain extent, with a top-four finish effectively secure already but a European ban hanging over their heads which essentially means that their final league position could be irrelevant aside from the financial benefits of finishing higher.
They would be forgiven for having already let their minds drift to the Champions League in August, although there did not appear to be many signs of that on Wednesday night.
In many ways, Burnley's task for the remainder of the season is similar to that of Man City - finish as high as they can, with the possibility of no tangible rewards being up for grabs.
Sean Dyche's side are all but safe from relegation already - they need just one point to reach the magic 40 mark - and will hope to hold on to a top-half finish having gone into the final nine games of the season in 10th.
Europe is not entirely out of the question with only four points separating them from seventh-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers, and particularly so if they can pick up where they left off before lockdown.
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The Clarets were on a seven-match unbeaten run in the Premier League when play was suspended, winning four of those in a run which stretches back to January 11 and includes victory at Manchester United and taking points off both North London giants.
Indeed, having won at Old Trafford Burnley could now become only the fourth club to win away at both Manchester clubs in the same Premier League season, and the first since Liverpool in 2008-09.
Burnley have a notoriously poor record against Man City, though, failing to win any of their last 15 away league games in this fixture in a drought which stretches back to 1963.
City have scored at least twice in each of their last 10 home meetings with Burnley, scoring 36 goals in total, while under Guardiola alone they have won all five such meetings while scoring 19 goals and conceding just two.
Add to that the fact that Man City have already had one match to help them get back up to speed after coronavirus and Burnley appear to face a huge task to get anything from this game.
Man City Premier League form: WLWWLW
Man City form (all competitions): WWWWLW
Burnley Premier League form: WDWWDD
Burnley form (all competitions): LDWWDD
Team News
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Man City will be without defender Eric Garcia, who required lengthy treatment following a sickening collision with Ederson during the match against Arsenal.
The youngster is now out of hospital and recovering well, but Premier League protocols on concussion mean that he will not be allowed to feature against Burnley.
John Stones is also a doubt with a lingering ankle injury, which means that either Nicolas Otamendi or Fernandinho is likely to fill in alongside Aymeric Laporte at the back.
Guardiola is expected to make the most of the strength in depth available to him over the coming weeks, which means that there could be a number of changes from the starting XI against Arsenal.
Rodri and Bernardo Silva are among the players who could come in, while Phil Foden will hope that his goalscoring cameo off the bench on Wednesday is enough to earn him a starting role.
Sergio Aguero should lead the line after only featuring for 10 minutes against Arsenal, with the Argentine boasting an incredible record against Burnley.
Aguero has scored nine goals in nine appearances against Burnley across all competitions, and has also scored in all five home games against the Clarets, netting on average every 47 minutes at the Etihad.
Burnley, meanwhile, will be without Ashley Barnes, Chris Wood, Ben Gibson and Johann Berg Gudmundsson for their first game back.
Matthew Lowton should be available, though, having returned to training and featured in practice matches following a knee injury.
Man City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Walker, Otamendi, Laporte, Mendy; De Bruyne, Rodri, Foden; Bernardo, Aguero, Sterling
Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Bardsley, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Hendrick, Westwood, Cork, McNeil; Vydra, Rodriguez
We say: Man City 5-0 Burnley
Burnley have been soundly beaten on more occasions than usual already this season, and despite their good form before lockdown we can see this one being another one-sided affair.
Man City looked very sharp against Arsenal and should only be better again with that first game back now out of the way, so we are predicting a difficult night for Dyche's side.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 82.34%. A draw had a probability of 12.1% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 5.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.29%) and 1-0 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.76%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (2.1%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
