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Malta national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage
Oct 8, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
 
Slovenia national football team

Malta
0 - 4
Slovenia


Mbong (66'), Satariano (88')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ilicic (27', 60'), Sporar (49'), Sesko (67')

Preview: Malta vs. Slovenia - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying clash between Malta and Slovenia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Slovenia will be aiming to keep their slim hopes of World Cup qualification alive when they travel to Malta on Friday.

Matjaz Kek's side are fourth in Group H with seven points from six games, while their hosts are fifth with four points.


Match preview

Slovenia's Benjamin Sesko shoots at goal against Croatia in September 2021© Reuters

Both of Slovenia's previous two World Cup appearances in 2002 and 2010 came courtesy of the playoffs and that is the route they are targeting again.

The Balkan nation are currently six points behind second-place Russia with four games remaining and host Valeri Karpin's team on Monday.

It means that victory in Malta is crucial, but they have lost all three away games in this qualifying campaign so far.

A 3-0 defeat to Croatia in their last game was Slovenia's heaviest defeat under Kek, who has the best win percentage of any manager in the country's history with 12 victories from 26 matches since being appointed in 2018.

One of their two wins in qualifying so far came against Malta in September, as Sandi Lovric's penalty on the stroke of halftime proved decisive in a 1-0 victory.

 Malta coach Devis Mangia on March 27, 2021© Reuters

Malta have never beaten Slovenia in seven previous meetings (losing six) and have only won three of their 108 matches in World Cup qualifying history.

However, one of those came last month as they beat Cyprus 3-0, which was their first victory on home turf in a World Cup qualifier.

Furthermore, their tally of six goals from six matches is already their joint-best record in a World Cup qualifying campaign, with the return game against Cyprus to come on Monday.

Devis Mangia's side do have the worst defence in the group though, having conceded 11 goals, and have lost six of their last eight matches.

Malta World Cup Qualifying form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L

Malta form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L

Slovenia World Cup Qualifying form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L

Slovenia form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L



Team News

Slovenia coach Matjaz Kek pictured on March 27, 2021© Reuters

St Johnstone defender James Brown has been called up to the Malta squad for the first time, but is a doubt for Friday's game due to a hamstring strain.

Winger Jurgen Degabriele is back available again after missing September's matches through injury, but Ryan Camenzuli is suspended.

Andrei Agius, Ferdinando Apap and Bjorn Kristensen have all been omitted from the squad for a breach of the team's code of ethics.

Miha Zajc requested to be left out of the Slovenia squad, with the midfielder not yet fully fit after returning from injury.

Benjamin Sesko has seven goals already this season for Red Bull Salzburg, but he is still looking for his first for the national team.

Matjaz Kek has included three uncapped players in his squad, including former Derby County and Swindon Town midfielder Timi Elsnik.

Malta possible starting lineup:
Bonello; Muscat, Borg, Shaw; Attard, Pisani, Teuma, Degabriele; J. Mbong, Montebello, P. Mbong

Slovenia possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Stojanovic, Bijol, Mevlja, Balkovec; Kurtic, Gnezda Cerin, Lovric; Ilicic, Sesko, Mlakar


SM words green background

We say: Malta 0-2 Slovenia

Defeat to Croatia aside, Slovenia have looked more solid in this qualifying campaign and will see this as a must-win game. We think that this extra motivation will help them emerge victorious, but it will not be a walkover at Ta' Qali.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 44.66%. A win for Malta had a probability of 30.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Malta win was 1-0 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Malta vs Slovenia

Malta
14.3%
Draw
16.3%
Slovenia
69.4%
98
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