In what will be their first-ever appearance in the round of 64 of the Coupe de France, Golden Lion travel to Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Saturday for a date with Lille.
Les Dogues are fifth in Ligue 1, earning an automatic berth into this stage of the tournament, while the side from Martinique made it into this phase of the competition thanks to a 3-2 come-from-behind victory over Metropole Troyenne.
Match preview
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It was a tough end to 2023 for Lille, who failed to win their final two top-flight encounters, though it has been a relatively solid domestic campaign to date.
Paulo Fonseca saw his side claim just a single point from their final two league fixtures, losing 2-1 to Strasbourg in their final encounter of 2023, their first domestic defeat all season after scoring the opening goal.
The two goals they conceded in their previous two Ligue 1 matchdays are as many as this side had given up in their nine competitive matches played before that.
The defensive shape of Les Dogues has carried them through all season, conceding the second-fewest goals to this stage of the Ligue 1 campaign (14) and the second-fewest in the group phase of the Europa Conference League (two).
Les Nordistes have yet to lose a competitive fixture at home this season and have never lost a Coupe de France encounter at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, with their last home defeat in this tournament occurring in 2005 at Stadium Nord Lille Metropole (2-1 versus Grenoble in extra time).
Lille have not lost a round of 64 encounter in the Coupe de France since January 2015 (2-0 at Bastia), while they are 1-0 versus sides from Martinique in this competition, defeating Club Colonial de Fort-de-France, 4-0 in 1978.
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A big second-half surge in the previous round of this competition kept the fairy tale alive for Golden Lion, who erased a 2-0 half-time deficit last month, scoring the winner in injury time.
The victory was even more miraculous given the fact they spent over half an hour down a man, while they claimed a 1-0 triumph versus AS Samarataine in their opening Coupe de France fixture to make it beyond the first round for the first time.
Their victory last month was also their first-ever competitive triumph versus a French opponent after being trampled by US Concarneau in the 2017-18 Coupe de France (7-0) and losing to SAS Epinal the following season (4-2 in extra time).
Jean-Francois Go's men ended 2023 on quite the run, losing just one of their last nine matches in all competitions (1-0 versus Club Franciscan).
Saturday will be the first time they face a side from the French top flight in this competition, while they have never won a Coupe de France affair away from home.
They have managed to find the back of the net three or more times in four of their previous five matches played in all competitions.
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Team News
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Lille will be without Tiago Djalo for this match as he is recovering from an ACL injury, Bafode Diakite has a sore shoulder and Ivan Cavaleiro is not expected to see the field due to a groin strain.
Jonathan David was the last Lille player to find the back of the net this season, as his 94th-minute penalty gave them a 1-1 draw versus Paris Saint-Germain, while Lucas Chevalier has only conceded one goal in his last three starts between the stick at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Golden Lion will be without Romario Barthelery after he received a pair of cautions in their previous Coupe de France triumph.
A Thierry Catherine penalty enabled them to prevail in their opening round fixture versus AS Samaritaine (1-0), while Alvyn Lamasine, Davy Singama and Kirane Gracien all found the back of the net in their dramatic 3-2 triumph to advance into this stage of the competition.
Lille possible starting lineup:
Mannone; Santos, Yoro, Umtiti, Gudmundsson; Bouaddi, Andre; Ounas, Haraldsson, Gomes; David
Golden Lion possible starting lineup:
Meslien; Beaudry, Bellance, Singama, Monlouis; Salines, Grelet, Noel, Catherine; Boriel, Parsemain
We say: Lille 4-0 Golden Lion
Golden Lion have yet to face a test quite like Lille, who are superior to them on paper in probably every respect imaginable.
While matches are not played on paper, it is hard to envision the club from Martinique threatening a side as well-disciplined defensively and with as much depth as Les Dogues.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 91.21%. A draw had a probability of 6.2% and a win for Golden Lion had a probability of 2.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (10.55%) and 2-0 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.84%), while for a Golden Lion win it was 1-2 (0.87%). The actual scoreline of 12-0 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
