Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 61.79%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 17.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.03%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Troyes win it was 1-0 (4.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
Result | ||
Troyes | Draw | Lyon |
17.4% ( 0.03) | 20.81% ( 0.01) | 61.79% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 54.17% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.87% ( 0.01) | 42.13% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.47% ( 0.01) | 64.53% ( -0.01) |
Troyes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.35% ( 0.04) | 37.65% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.57% ( 0.04) | 74.43% ( -0.04) |
Lyon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.89% ( -0.01) | 13.11% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.25% ( -0.01) | 39.75% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Troyes | Draw | Lyon |
1-0 @ 4.82% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 2.36% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.56% ( 0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 17.4% | 1-1 @ 9.8% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( 0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.81% | 0-2 @ 10.18% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 10.03% 1-2 @ 9.95% 0-3 @ 6.9% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 6.74% ( -0) 0-4 @ 3.51% ( -0) 1-4 @ 3.42% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.29% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.67% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.42% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.39% ( -0) Other @ 3.27% Total : 61.78% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 33 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 79 | 33 | 46 | 73 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 42 | 22 | 64 |
3 | Lille | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 58 |
4 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 |
5 | Nice | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 54 |
6 | Lens | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 50 |
7 | Lyon | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 50 |
8 | Marseille | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 50 | 40 | 10 | 47 |
9 | Rennes | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 46 |
10 | Reims | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 44 |
11 | Toulouse | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 33 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 66 | -28 | 26 |
R | Clermont | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |