We said: Lille 3-0 Montpellier
Even though Lille have a huge match here at the Mauroy on Wednesday, Genesio must ensure his players are focused on this very winnable fixture, which will be important in the race for the top four. Montpellier have failed to score in eight of their 11 away league matches this season - more than the last two seasons combined - and there is little to suggest they will change that here, following five straight defeats. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 71.7%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 11.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 3-0 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.53%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
71.7% ( -0.92) | 16.43% ( 0.52) | 11.87% ( 0.41) |
| Both teams to score 55.37% ( -0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.49% ( -1.48) | 33.51% ( 1.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.69% ( -1.71) | 55.31% ( 1.72) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.79% ( -0.55) | 8.21% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 71.27% ( -1.39) | 28.73% ( 1.4) |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.32% ( -0.37) | 39.68% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 23.64% ( -0.34) | 76.36% ( 0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
Lille 71.69%
Montpellier HSC 11.87%
Draw 16.43%
| Lille | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
| 2-0 @ 10.17% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 8.48% ( -0.03)1-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.41)3-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 5.3% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 2.65% ( -0.16)5-1 @ 2.45% ( -0.17)4-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.12)5-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.09)6-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.1)6-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.2% Total : 71.69% | 1-1 @ 7.53% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.25)3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.18% Total : 16.43% | 1-2 @ 3.48% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 3.01% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 1.39% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.58% Total : 11.87% |
How you voted: Lille vs Montpellier
Lille
88.6%Draw
6.8%Montpellier HSC
4.5%44
Head to Head
Dec 1, 2024 2pm
Gameweek 13
Montpellier
2-2
Lille
Sylla (45+2'), Nordin (90+3')
Maksimovic (9'), Gasset (10'), Tchato (35'), Savanier (52'), Sagnan (83')
Gasset (87'), Coulibaly (90+9')
Maksimovic (9'), Gasset (10'), Tchato (35'), Savanier (52'), Sagnan (83')
Gasset (87'), Coulibaly (90+9')
David (44' pen., 54')
Mukau (26'), Alexsandro (47'), Cabella (52'), Fernandez Pardo (89'), Arnar Haraldsson (90+13')
Bakker (90+9')
Mukau (26'), Alexsandro (47'), Cabella (52'), Fernandez Pardo (89'), Arnar Haraldsson (90+13')
Bakker (90+9')
Sep 3, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 4
Lille
1-0
Montpellier
Apr 16, 2023 12pm
Sep 4, 2022 12pm
