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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 41.39%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.73%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Port Vale |
32.42% ( -0.7) | 26.18% ( -0.08) | 41.39% ( 0.77) |
Both teams to score 52.87% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.42% ( 0.14) | 51.58% ( -0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.62% ( 0.13) | 73.37% ( -0.13) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.15% ( -0.39) | 29.84% ( 0.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.06% ( -0.47) | 65.93% ( 0.47) |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.37% ( 0.47) | 24.63% ( -0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.86% ( 0.64) | 59.14% ( -0.65) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Port Vale |
1-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 7.53% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 5.37% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 3.04% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 2.17% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.39% Total : 32.42% | 1-1 @ 12.45% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.35% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.18% | 0-1 @ 10.3% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 8.73% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 7.22% ( 0.15) 1-3 @ 4.08% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.43% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.63% Total : 41.39% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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