Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 32.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.