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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 41.79%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.27%) and 1-2 (8.13%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Northampton Town |
29.47% ( -0.01) | 28.73% ( -0.03) | 41.79% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 44.31% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
38.1% ( 0.1) | 61.89% ( -0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.33% ( 0.08) | 81.66% ( -0.08) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.61% ( 0.05) | 37.38% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.83% ( 0.05) | 74.16% ( -0.05) |
Northampton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.76% ( 0.08) | 29.23% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.81% ( 0.09) | 65.18% ( -0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Northampton Town |
1-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.29% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.13% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.74% 3-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.74% Total : 29.47% | 1-1 @ 13.22% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.92% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.58% Total : 28.72% | 0-1 @ 13.43% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.27% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.13% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.39% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.33% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.52% Total : 41.78% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
> League Two Full Table |