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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 53.28%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 20.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.02%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gillingham would win this match.
Result | ||
Gillingham | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
53.28% ( -0) | 26.14% ( 0) | 20.57% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 43.63% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.1% ( -0) | 58.9% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.61% | 79.39% ( 0.01) |
Gillingham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.75% ( -0) | 22.25% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.32% ( -0) | 55.68% ( 0.01) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.12% ( 0) | 43.88% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.97% ( 0) | 80.03% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Gillingham | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
1-0 @ 14.67% 2-0 @ 11.02% 2-1 @ 9.08% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.52% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.55% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.08% 3-2 @ 1.87% 4-1 @ 1.71% Other @ 2.77% Total : 53.27% | 1-1 @ 12.08% 0-0 @ 9.76% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.74% Other @ 0.56% Total : 26.14% | 0-1 @ 8.04% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.98% 0-2 @ 3.31% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.37% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.03% 0-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 0.94% Total : 20.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
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