Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 40.36%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 34.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.39%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 2-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Barnsley in this match.