There is little doubt that Charlton possess more individual talent, particularly in offensive areas, but their confidence levels are likely to be low having lost four of their last five league games. Burton are not in great form themselves, but they have remained consistent at home and are fighting to impress their new manager.
As such, we expect the hosts to avoid defeat as a worst case scenario, but Charlton should have enough firepower to get something out of the game. A score draw feels the likeliest outcome.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 41.38%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 33.78% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
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