League of Ireland Premier | Gameweek 24

Jul 17, 2022 at 6pm UK

Finn Park

Finn Harps
1 - 2
Derry

Jones (31')
Nicholson (44'), Slevin (49'), Rainey (57'), Connolly (62'), Tourish (68'), Boyle (69'), Mihaljevic (90')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Graydon (80'), Akintunde (90+3')
McEleney (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's League of Ireland Premier clash between Finn Harps and Derry City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Finn Harps 1-2 Derry City

Although Derry should comfortably win this derby on paper based on this season's successes, a tiring trip back home on Friday is likely to leave them a little short of fitness on Sunday. The hosts will surely look to capitalise on their advantage in energy levels, but we are still predicting the visitors to edge out their rivals and strengthen their hold on a top-three spot. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 55.82%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Finn Harps had a probability of 18.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.53%) and 1-2 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Finn Harps win it was 1-0 (7.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derry City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derry City.

Result
Finn Harps	Draw	Derry City
18.96% ( 2.36)	25.23% ( 0.79)	55.82% ( -3.15)

Both teams to score 43.74% (

1.84)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.49% (

0.23)

57.51% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.7% (

0.18)

78.3% (

-0.18)

Finn Harps Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.11% (

3.06)

44.89% (

-3.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.15% (

2.35)

80.85% (

-2.35)

Derry City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.38% (

-1.14)

20.63% (

1.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.81% (

-1.84)

53.19% (

1.84)

Score Analysis

Finn Harps 18.96%

Derry City 55.8%

Draw 25.22%

Finn Harps	Draw	Derry City
1-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.55) 2-1 @ 4.69% ( 0.56) 2-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.45) 3-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.24) 3-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.16) Other @ 1.64% Total : 18.96%	1-1 @ 11.7% ( 0.47) 0-0 @ 9.26% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 3.7% ( 0.33) Other @ 0.56% Total : 25.22%	0-1 @ 14.61% ( -0.67) 0-2 @ 11.53% ( -0.96) 1-2 @ 9.24% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 6.07% ( -0.74) 1-3 @ 4.86% ( -0.15) 0-4 @ 2.4% ( -0.39) 2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 1.92% ( -0.13) Other @ 3.22% Total : 55.8%