Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 47.69%. A win for Sweden had a probability of 27.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.39%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Sweden win was 0-1 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.