We said: Luxembourg 1-1 Bulgaria
Both sides will enter this match in relatively good form, and we are expecting a close match on Sunday afternoon. There is a lot more experience in the Luxembourg squad, but Bulgaria also have plenty of quality, so we have had to settle on a low-scoring draw in this contest.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 37.55%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 0-1 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.