MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 15:57:04| >> :60:50:50:
Japan national football team
International Friendly
Sep 23, 2022 at 1.25pm UK
National Olympic Stadium
USA national football team

Japan
2 - 0
USA

Kamada (24'), Mitoma (88')
FT(HT: 1-0)

de la Torre (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's International Friendlies clash between Japan and USA, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Japan

Last Six:
Comp:
Last Game: Japan 0-1 Brazil
Monday, June 6 at 11.20am in International Friendlies
Current Group C Standings P GD PTS
1Uruguay357
2Chile346
3Japan3-42
4Ecuador3-51

USA

Last Six:
Comp:
Last Game: El Salvador 1-1 USA
Wednesday, June 15 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League

We said: Japan 1-1 USA

 Even though the Americans are ranked 10 places higher than Japan according to FIFA, we do not believe on paper that the US are that much better, especially seeing as they have played primarily against teams from CONCACAF over the past few years. There is quality and creativity on both sides, and they each have plenty of experience with top European clubs, but we expect defensively that each team will be able to keep the scoring chances to a minimum. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 47.41%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for USA had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.21%) and 2-1 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a USA win it was 0-1 (8.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
JapanDrawUSA
47.41% (0.468 0.47) 26.79% (-0.374 -0.37) 25.8% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)
Both teams to score 47.32% (0.95 0.95)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.05% (1.262 1.26)56.95% (-1.259 -1.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.14% (1.001 1)77.86% (-1 -1)
Japan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.95% (0.779 0.78)24.05% (-0.777 -0.78)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.68% (1.098 1.1)58.32% (-1.096 -1.1)
USA Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.3% (0.619 0.62)37.7% (-0.617 -0.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.53% (0.596 0.6)74.47% (-0.59399999999999 -0.59)
Score Analysis
    Japan 47.4%
    USA 25.8%
    Draw 26.79%
JapanDrawUSA
1-0 @ 12.91% (-0.34 -0.34)
2-0 @ 9.21% (-0.026 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.98% (0.124 0.12)
3-0 @ 4.37% (0.085 0.09)
3-1 @ 4.27% (0.154 0.15)
3-2 @ 2.08% (0.108 0.11)
4-0 @ 1.56% (0.065 0.07)
4-1 @ 1.52% (0.087 0.09)
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 47.4%
1-1 @ 12.6% (-0.11 -0.11)
0-0 @ 9.07% (-0.447 -0.45)
2-2 @ 4.38% (0.132 0.13)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 26.79%
0-1 @ 8.84% (-0.281 -0.28)
1-2 @ 6.15% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
0-2 @ 4.31% (-0.063 -0.06)
1-3 @ 2% (0.049 0.05)
2-3 @ 1.43% (0.066 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.4% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 1.67%
Total : 25.8%

How you voted: Japan vs USA

Japan
48.1%
Draw
17.0%
USA
34.9%
106
rhs 2.0
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