We said: Germany 2-1 Colombia
There will seemingly be no quick fix for Germany's defensive problems, and a free-scoring Colombia side should no doubt capitalise on their hosts' recent lapses at the back.
However, with a bit more ruthlessness and luck, the hosts could and probably should have made the net ripple against Poland too, and Flick should oversee a narrow success to alleviate some of the pressure on his shoulders.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 55.38%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Colombia had a probability of 21.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%), while for a Colombia win it was 0-1 (6.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.