Swindon Town have an opportunity to make up some ground in their quest to claim a League Two playoff spot when they head to Wetherby Road on Friday for a date with Harrogate Town.
The club from North Yorkshire are winless in six consecutive home contests, while the Robins are four points behind Newport County for seventh place and a shot at promotion.
Match preview
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After ending the previous month on a positive note, beating Scunthorpe United 3-0, Simon Weaver has seen his team fall short on two occasions in April, losing 2-0 at Salford City last Saturday.
Some indecision defensively and a lack of quality in the final third wasted what Weaver felt was a solid effort from his side at Moor Lane.
Since March, quality has been in short supply for this club, who have failed to score in four league fixtures, producing only one victory in their previous 10 domestic encounters.
While the results have not gone their way lately, by no means has it been one-way traffic in the Harrogate third of the field as they have created a handful of chances each game, though, at the moment, they have not been able to finish off many of those opportunities.
Over the past few games, this team have struggled to react in a timely fashion when suffering a blow, failing to find a goal after conceding in three of their last four affairs.
They have conceded first in two of their last three matches played at Wetherby Road, with their previous home victory coming on February 5, 2-0 over Bradford City.
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Luck has not been on the side of Ben Garner and his Swindon Town players recently, as an own goal by Dion Conroy in the 90th minute sent them to defeat against Newport County (1-0), a team that they are chasing in the playoff race at the moment.
The Robins have yet to find the back of the net this month, and they started poorly last Saturday, sustaining plenty of pressure in the opening 15 minutes.
They have created a decent amount of scoring opportunities in their previous six games but have tallied far too late, notching only one first-half goal in all of those encounters, while finding the back of the net twice in injury time.
Scoring first has been critical to their success, winning five of their last six domestic encounters in which they have drawn first blood.
Five of their final six domestic encounters in this campaign will be against sides currently below them in the table, so climbing into a League Two playoff position is still within the realm of possibilities.
While this side have had their share of struggles lately, they can take solace in knowing that they have never dropped three consecutive league games this season.
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Team News
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Luke Armstrong still leads Sulphurites in goals in this campaign, despite failing to tally since March 5, while Jack Muldoon has their only strike so far this month.
Goals from Jack Diamond, George Thomson and Will Smith helped them defeat Scunthorpe at the end of March, as goalkeeper Mark Oxley only had to save three shots, collecting the clean sheet.
After being replaced by Joe Cracknell for the final 15 minutes plus stoppage time against Salford City, Oxley might not be available for this encounter.
Swindon striker Harry McKirdy is tied with Jamille Matt for third in goals domestically this season with 17, well behind the two frontrunners in the Golden Boot race, Dom Telford (24) and Matthew Stevens (23).
A late strike from Jack Payne enabled the Robins to come away with a point in their previous encounter versus Harrogate Town (1-1), Louis Reed returned from suspension on Saturday, replacing Ricky Aguiar, and Brandon Cooper will be questionable with a knee injury.
Jonny Williams, Ben Gladwin, and Josh Davison have helped shoulder the scoring load for this club, tallying five times each so far this season.
Harrogate Town possible starting lineup:
Cracknell; Burrell, Sheron, Smith, Fallowfield; Diamond, Kerry, Pattison, Thomson; Armstrong, Muldoon
Swindon Town possible starting lineup:
Wollacott; Hunt, Conroy, Odimayo, Iandolo; Gladwin, Reed, Payne, Mitchell-Lawson; McKirdy, Williams
We say: Harrogate Town 1-2 Swindon Town
You cannot question the desire or work ethic of Harrogate Town, but unfortunately, it will take more than that to slow down a team with the depth of Swindon, who can count on a variety of attacking threats.
Sulphirites have conceded the second-most goals in the league this season (65), which does not bode well when you face a side like the Robins, who have scored the third-most (62).
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 40.65%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 33.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
