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Turkish Super Lig | Gameweek 15
Dec 5, 2021 at 1pm UK
 

Giresunspor
3 - 1
Karagumruk

Balde (69'), Doukara (83', 88' pen.)
Flavio (50')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Pesic (28')
Torun (87')

Preview: Giresunspor vs. Fatih Karagumruk - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Turkish Super Lig clash between Giresunspor and Fatih Karagumruk, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Giresunspor are looking to extend their current four-game unbeaten run in all competitions to five on Sunday, when they host seventh-placed Fatih Karagumruk.

The visitors have recorded just one win in their last five Turkish Super Lig matches, but three points this weekend could lift Fatih Karagumruk to fourth place.


Match preview

Last weekend Hakan Keles's side recorded their second set of back-to-back wins this season, as they eased past a struggling Besiktas side, who were reduced to 10 players in the 36th minute.

Fousseni Diabate, Ibrahima Balde, Serginho and Joseph Champness were on target in that game, which was the first time Giresunspor have scored more than two goals in a single game this year.

They followed that result up with another four goals in the Turkish Cup on Thursday, when Giresunspor progressed to the next round with a 4-2 win over Ankara Demirspor.

Keles's side are one of three teams in the Super Lig with the lowest scoring record so far this campaign, only netting 12 times in 14 matches, but scoring eight goals in their last two games may be a turn in form in front of goal for Giresunspor.

Their goal difference is now 11 better than Yeni Malatyaspor, so it is unlikely that Giresunspor will drop into the relegation zone if they taste defeat this weekend, but three points could take them six points clear of 17th place.

Fatih Karagumruk's form this season can be described as inconsistent, but they did record a 2-0 win in the Turkish Cup last time out, beating Sariyer thanks to goals from Ervin Zukanovic and Ahmed Musa.

However, last time in the Super Lig, Francesco Farioli's side fell to a 2-0 defeat at the hands of league leaders Trabzonspor, in a game where Fatih Karagumruk rued missed chances.

Karagumruk will not be fazed having to travel for Sunday's encounter, as they have won as many fixtures on the road as they have done so at home this season.

Recent history between these two teams supports a Fatih Karagumruk victory, having won two of the last three meetings including the last match which came in February and Karagumruk came out 2-1 on top.

Giresunspor Turkish Super Lig form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W

Giresunspor form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W

Fatih Karagumruk Turkish Super Lig form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L

Fatih Karagumruk form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Giresunspor centre-back Douglas has not featured for the side since the beginning of November and he will remain absent for the rest of the season due to injury.

Attacker Diabate, who is on loan from Trabzonspor, has netted three goals in his last four Super Lig performances and he is certain to start in the number 10 role for Giresunspor on Sunday.

Serginho and Magomed Suleymanov are likely to provide the width for the home side, while Flavio and Hamidou Traore sit in front of the back four as the midfield pair.

Burak Bekaroglu, Fabio Borini, Kerim Frei and Medhi Benatia will all continue to be absent from Fatih Karagumruk's squad as they are still recovering from injuries that they picked up last month.

Lucas Biglia and Vegar Eggen Hedenstad were both sent off deep into stoppage time when Karagumruk defeated Kasimpasa, but they could return to the side having served their suspension during the Trabzonspor outing.

Youngster Serhat Ahmetoglu was handed his first start of the season in Hedenstad's absence last time out, but the more experienced right-back will come back into the team with Caner Erkin continuing as the other wing's full-back.

Giresunspor possible starting lineup:
Kocuk; Behich, Perez, Diarra, Yavru; Flavio, Traore; Serginho, Diabate, Suleymanov; Balde

Fatih Karagumruk possible starting lineup:
Viviano; Erkin, Zukanovic, Luckassen, Hedenstad; Biglia; Karamoh, Bertolacci, Oztumer, Mor; Pesic


SM words green background

We say: Giresunspor 1-1 Fatih Karagumruk

Giresunspor have won their last three games in all competitions but it will be a tough ask to stretch that to four consecutive victories against a side which are expected to test the home team's defence.

Fatih Karagumruk will want to follow their cup win up with another victory, but there is likely to be nothing to split these two teams on Sunday.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Giresunspor win with a probability of 47.02%. A win for Fatih Karagumruk had a probability of 28% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Giresunspor win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Fatih Karagumruk win was 0-1 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Giresunspor would win this match.


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