Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 39.14%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.