Ponferradina will certainly provide stern opposition for Atletico, which is exactly what Simeone will want ahead of the return of competitive action. It would not be a shock to see the home side triumph here, but we just have a feeling that Atletico's quality will see them run out narrow winners. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.58%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 25.01% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.59%) and 0-2 (8.81%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 1-0 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Ponferradina	Draw	Atletico Madrid
25.01% ( -0.01)	24.41%	50.58% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 53.67% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.72% (

-0.01)

48.28% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.57% (

-0.01)

70.43% (

0.01)

Ponferradina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.35% (

-0.01)

33.65% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.7% (

-0.01)

70.3% (

0.01)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.9%

19.1% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.27%

50.72%

Score Analysis

Ponferradina 25.01%

Atletico Madrid 50.58%

Draw 24.41%

Ponferradina	Draw	Atletico Madrid
1-0 @ 7% 2-1 @ 6.31% ( -0) 2-0 @ 3.81% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.29% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.9% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.38% ( -0) Other @ 2.31% Total : 25.01%	1-1 @ 11.58% 0-0 @ 6.43% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.41%	0-1 @ 10.64% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.59% 0-2 @ 8.81% ( 0) 1-3 @ 5.29% 0-3 @ 4.86% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.19% 0-4 @ 2.01% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.19% Other @ 3.11% Total : 50.58%