EFL Cup

EFL Cup | Second Round

Aug 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Rodney Parade

Newport
1 - 1
Brentford

Rai (90+6')
Charsley (6'), Lewis (76'), Payne (90+4')

FT
(aet)

Jensen (87')

Brentford win 3-0 on penalties

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Newport County and Brentford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newport County

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Newport 3-1 Sutton
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Brentford

All competitions

Last Game: Brentford 1-1 Crystal Palace
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We say: Newport County 0-2 Brentford

Although they are likely to make a few changes to their starting lineup, Brentford should have more than enough quality to breeze past Newport County and book their place in the next round. The Bees made a push for the European spots last season, but they will be hoping they can go further in the EFL Cup, having exited at the third round stage against Gillingham in the previous campaign. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 40.97%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 32.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Brentford win was 0-1 (9.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.

Result
Newport County	Draw	Brentford
40.97% ( -0.04)	26.33% ( -0.05)	32.69% ( 0.09)

Both teams to score 52.49% (

0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.89% (

0.22)

52.11% (

-0.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.17% (

0.19)

73.83% (

-0.2)

Newport County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.91% (

0.08)

25.08% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.23% (

0.11)

59.77% (

-0.11)

Brentford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.07% (

0.17)

29.93% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.96% (

0.2)

66.03% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Newport County 40.97%

Brentford 32.69%

Draw 26.33%

Newport County	Draw	Brentford
1-0 @ 10.38% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 8.66% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.18% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.99% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.31% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.15% ( 0) Other @ 2.52% Total : 40.97%	1-1 @ 12.52% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.51% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.33%	0-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.55% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.46% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.04% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.37% Total : 32.69%