Following last week's result, Independiente Medellin and Palestino will need no extra motivation on Wednesday as they look to reach the Copa Sudamericana quarter-finals — a stage that they have both never progressed past in the history of the tournament.
While we expect both sides to go all out at the Estadio Hernan Ramirez Villegas, we fancy the Colombian outfit to come away with a narrow victory in front of their home supporters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 48.32%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Palestino had a probability of 25.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.22%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Palestino win it was 0-1 (8.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.
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