A draw in this one would be of no good to either side, so we expect both teams to go in search of all three points. That said, we are also backing the home team to narrowly edge out their visitors and emerge triumphant come the sound of the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 36.52%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 35.5% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (11.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Velez Sarsfield
35.5% ( 0)	27.98% ( -0.01)	36.52% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 47.86% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.83% (

0.02)

58.17% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.18% (

0.02)

78.82% (

-0.02)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.86% (

0.01)

31.14% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.53% (

0.02)

67.47% (

-0.01)

Velez Sarsfield Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.5% (

0.02)

30.5% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.29% (

0.02)

66.71% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Nacional 35.49%

Velez Sarsfield 36.51%

Draw 27.97%

Nacional	Draw	Velez Sarsfield
1-0 @ 11.07% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.68% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.46% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.99% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.51% 3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0) Other @ 3.01% Total : 35.49%	1-1 @ 13.15% 0-0 @ 9.5% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.56% ( 0) Other @ 0.77% Total : 27.97%	0-1 @ 11.27% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.81% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.7% 1-3 @ 3.09% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.65% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 2.27% Total : 36.51%