Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Jun 28, 2022 at 11.15pm UK

Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
2 - 0
Union

(Nacional win 4-1 on aggregate)

Fagundez (4'), Lozano (21')
Rodriguez (47'), Coelho (86'), Trasante (90')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Polenta (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Nacional and Union, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

There is little to choose between the sides coming into this one, and we expect an open and end-to-end affair with chances at both ends. We also fancy Nacional to claim a hard-fought win and take a narrow lead into the return leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 43.51%. A win for Union had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Union
43.51% ( -0.08)	25.26% ( -0.02)	31.22% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 55.43% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.93% (

0.12)

48.06% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.77% (

0.11)

70.23% (

-0.1)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.94% (

0.01)

22.06% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.6% (

0.02)

55.4% (

-0.02)

Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.11% (

0.12)

28.89% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.24% (

0.15)

64.76% (

-0.15)

Score Analysis

Nacional 43.51%

Union 31.22%

Draw 25.25%

Nacional	Draw	Union
1-0 @ 9.63% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.55% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.83% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.72% 4-0 @ 1.39% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0) Other @ 2.34% Total : 43.51%	1-1 @ 11.95% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.61% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.25%	0-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.43% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.07% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.59% Total : 31.22%