Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Jul 5, 2022 at 11.15pm UK

Estadio 15 de Abril

Union
1 - 2
Nacional

(Nacional win 4-1 on aggregate)

Britez (70')
Roldan (21')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Ramirez (78'), Luis Rodriguez (84')
Coelho (12'), Candido (16'), Fagundez (57'), Zabala (60'), Lozano (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Union and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional are in the driving seat in this one following last week's first-leg victory. While Union will hope that their home advantage can help in their quest to overturn the deficit, they have managed just one win in their last four games at the Estadio 15 de Abril. We predict the Uruguayan side will hold the hosts to a share of the spoils and go through on aggregate. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.47%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-2 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.

Result
Union	Draw	Nacional
43.86% ( 0.04)	23.56% ( 0.02)	32.58% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 62% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.29% (

-0.1)

39.71% (

0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.93% (

-0.1)

62.06% (

0.1)

Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.55% (

-0.02)

18.45% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.37% (

-0.04)

49.63% (

0.04)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.03% (

-0.08)

23.97% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.79% (

-0.12)

58.21% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Union 43.86%

Nacional 32.58%

Draw 23.55%

Union	Draw	Nacional
2-1 @ 9.02% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.08% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.15% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0) Other @ 3.59% Total : 43.86%	1-1 @ 10.67% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.55%	1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.32% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.51% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.63% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.15% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.89% Total : 32.58%