Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Aug 31, 2022 at 1.30am UK

Arena da Baixada

Athletico PR
1 - 0
Palmeiras

(Athletico Paranaense win 3-2 on aggregate)

Santana (23')
Moura (58'), Vitinho (69')
Moura (70'), Felipe Scolari (75')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Rafael (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Athletico Paranaense and Palmeiras, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Palmeiras

Last Six:

Last Game: Fluminense 1-1 Palmeiras
Saturday, August 27 at 11pm in Brasileiro

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Palmeiras	24	23	50
2	Flamengo	24	19	43
3	Internacional	24	15	42

We said: Athletico Paranaense 1-1 Palmeiras

Furacao have conceded a goal or fewer in eight consecutive home matches in all competitions, and while they are one of the few teams who hold a victory against Palmeiras this season, their inconsistent form of late makes it difficult for us to see them as the clear winners in this contest. It appears as though it will take something special to beat this Palestra side, who look as hungry and determined as ever to win it all once again, while they have reacted well in the face of adversity and always seem to find another gear. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 49.62%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 22.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.63%) and 1-2 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 1-0 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result
Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Palmeiras
22.16% ( 0.03)	28.22% ( -0)	49.62% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 40.39% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.88% (

0.04)

64.11% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.73% (

0.03)

83.26% (

-0.03)

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.74% (

0.06)

45.26% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.86% (

0.05)

81.14% (

-0.05)

Palmeiras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.78%

26.22% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.68% (

61.31% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Athletico Paranaense 22.16%

Palmeiras 49.61%

Draw 28.21%

Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Palmeiras
1-0 @ 9.41% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.73% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.32% ( 0) 3-0 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 1.73% Total : 22.16%	1-1 @ 12.59% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.86% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.34% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.42% Total : 28.21%	0-1 @ 15.88% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 10.63% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.43% ( 0) 0-3 @ 4.75% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.76% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.59% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 1.83% Total : 49.61%