Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guangzhou Evergrande win with a probability of 48.15%. A win for Tianjin Tianhai had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guangzhou Evergrande win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.82%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Tianjin Tianhai win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guangzhou Evergrande would win this match.