Two giants of the English game kick off 2021 with a bang on Sunday afternoon as Chelsea welcome Manchester City to Stamford Bridge for a mouth-watering showdown.
Both teams have accrued 26 points heading into their first match of the New Year, although the visitors do have two games in hand and have enjoyed a far better spell of form than their weekend opponents.
Chelsea's last match of 2020 saw the Blues held to a 1-1 draw by Aston Villa, while a coronavirus-hit Manchester City last took to the pitch on Boxing Day in their comfortable victory over Newcastle United.
Match preview
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The New Year brings new opportunities for Frank Lampard's Chelsea, who will be aiming to wipe the slate clean after a spate of underwhelming results over the festive period.
The Blues faithful have only been treated to a solitary win from their side's last six matches in all competitions, but even then that 3-0 derby victory over West Ham United simply papered over the cracks that have begun to appear at Stamford Bridge.
There is no shame in losing at the home of Everton or Wolverhampton Wanderers, but when you are a Chelsea side with ambitions of Premier League glory after a £200m summer spending spree, your title credentials will undoubtedly be called into question after back-to-back defeats to European hopefuls.
Lampard's men deserved nothing from their Boxing Day trip to Arsenal and that is exactly what they got, but welcoming Aston Villa to the fortress of Stamford Bridge represented the perfect opportunity for the Blues to rectify the mistakes they made at the Emirates Stadium.
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However, Chelsea once again came up short on their own patch, with Olivier Giroud's opener - his ninth goal of the season in all competitions - cancelled out by Anwar El Ghazi's second-half equaliser as Chelsea lost more ground in the title race.
As the only top-half side to have lost three of their last five league matches, the sixth-placed Blues now find themselves seven points behind reigning champions Liverpool and three behind fourth-placed Everton, who take on West Ham, while Manchester United face off against Aston Villa on Friday.
In spite of Chelsea's recent struggles - and the fact that Kai Havertz and Timo Werner are yet to demonstrate their true qualities - only Liverpool (37) have chalked up more top-flight goals than Chelsea (31) this season, and a win for the Blues would see them extend their unbeaten streak at home to 12 matches in all competitions.
Depending on results elsewhere, Chelsea could potentially break back into the top four with a 27th Premier League victory against Man City, who are the latest top-flight club to have been affected by a cluster of COVID-19 cases during the festive season.
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There is never a good time to be hit with a coronavirus outbreak, but Manchester City were starting to mount a genuine title charge before Kyle Walker and Gabriel Jesus both tested positive for COVID-19.
The absences of Walker and Jesus did not affect City's Boxing Day clash with Newcastle - in which Ilkay Gundogan and Ferran Torres both found the back of the net in a comfortable victory - but following several new cases their proposed midweek clash with Everton had to be called off.
Sunday's enticing showdown with Chelsea was thrust into the realms of uncertainty after news of the outbreak broke, but City's first game of 2021 is expected to go ahead as planned as they endeavour to stretch their winning run across all competitions to four matches.
While Chelsea have had no problems finding the back of the net this season, goals have not exactly been Man City's forte. With Sergio Aguero and Jesus both struggling with various ailments, Pep Guardiola's men have struck just 21 times in the league this term - the fewest out of any side in the top half.
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However, the Citizens' prowess at the other end of the pitch is evident since Ruben Dias was brought in from Benfica. The ever-present centre-back has made an immediate impact in a City rearguard which has shipped just 12 top-flight goals all season - the fewest in the league - and the resurgence of John Stones has been yet another shining light for Guardiola this term.
A relatively slow start to the campaign means that City currently occupy eighth spot in the table, but if Guardiola's men continue in the same vein of form as they have done over the past few weeks, the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United will certainly begin to look over their shoulder.
The four-time Premier League champions' comfortable 2-0 win over Newcastle on Boxing Day stretched their unbeaten run across all competitions to 10 matches since November's defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, and should the visitors pick up all three points here, they will have won three games on the bounce in the top flight for the first time this season.
For that to occur, Guardiola will be desperate to have Aguero fit and ready to spearhead the Citizens' attack. The prolific Argentine has enjoyed unprecedented success in front of goal against Chelsea with 15 strikes to his name - only Newcastle's defence has been breached by him on the same number of occasions.
Chelsea Premier League form: WLLWLD
Chelsea form (all competitions): DLLWLD
Manchester City Premier League form: WWDDWW
Manchester City form (all competitions): WDDWWW
Team News
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Lampard rang the changes for the visit of Villa after a poor showing against Arsenal, but shuffling the pack did not pay dividends last time out and he will certainly revert to full-strength here.
However, doubts remain over the fitness of Hakim Ziyech - who has returned to full training but may not be risked from the off - while Reece James is definitely out with a hamstring problem.
Cesar Azpilicueta is therefore in line to make his 400th appearance for the club with James sidelined, while Andreas Christensen and Antonio Rudiger are expected to make way for Thiago Silva and Kurt Zouma.
Mateo Kovacic should also return to the midfield in place of Jorginho, while Giroud's goal against Villa is unlikely to see him retain his spot in the starting lineup ahead of Tammy Abraham.
Manchester City did not reveal the identities of the other three players who tested positive for coronavirus alongside Walker and Jesus, but Ederson seemingly confirmed on social media that he is self-isolating and will not be available here.
Zack Steffen is therefore set for a baptism of fire on his Premier League debut, while Eric Garcia - who is supposedly close to sealing a switch to Barcelona - is also unavailable as he nurses a leg injury.
Ilkay Gundogan took a blow to the ankle against Newcastle, but the midfielder expressed optimism over his chances of playing in the proposed meeting with Everton, so he should be fine to line up alongside Rodri in the heart of midfield.
It remains to be seen whether Chelsea's nemesis Aguero can last the full 90 minutes but he should certainly start this one, although Torres is waiting in the wings and ready to be called upon.
Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Mendy; Azpilicueta, Zouma, Silva, Chilwell; Kante, Kovacic, Mount; Pulisic, Abraham, Werner
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Steffen; Cancelo, Dias, Stones, Mendy; Rodri, Gundogan; Mahrez, De Bruyne, Sterling; Aguero
Head To Head
Sunday's game at Stamford Bridge represents the 166th meeting between Chelsea and Manchester City in all competitions, with the Blues coming out on top 68 times compared to City's 58.
The most recent meeting between the two teams took place behind closed doors back in June, with goals from Willian and Christian Pulisic propelling Chelsea to victory in a result which also handed Liverpool the 2019-20 Premier League title.
Despite losing at Stamford Bridge last season, City have triumphed in six out of the last eight games between the two clubs in all competitions, and the spoils have not been shared in this fixture since January 2015.
We say: Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City
Assuming that most of City's first-team players remain unaffected by the coronavirus crisis at the club, they will be aware that Sunday's game represents one of the best chances they will get to overcome Chelsea on their own turf.
Lampard will be urging his side to kick off the New Year on the right foot after a dismal end to 2020, and coming up against an inexperienced shot-stopper in Steffen could have the likes of Havertz and Werner fancying their chances, but we cannot look past City in their current form and expect a narrow win for the visitors in their first match of 2021.
Top betting tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 47.26%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 28.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-0 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
